The economist who discovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator says that a downturn will strike anytime now

• Cam Harvey said in December that a recessionary scenario wasn’t his base case.
• But amid a still-hawkish Fed and the banking-sector turmoil, Harvey has changed his view.
• Harvey discovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator.

Back in December, Cam Harvey made an eyebrow-raising call: the inverted yield curve, the famous recession indicator he discovered in the 1980s, would produce its first false reading since the 1960s. The US economy was in a position to avoid recession.